Fantasy Football Domination, Part IV: Quarterbacks — Just Wait. And Keep Waiting.
Todd and I both picked up part-time jobs senior year of high school. This is nearly three decades ago, so forgive the fuzziness around the edges — like an old VHS tape that’s been dubbed one too many times. Todd got himself a gig at a pet store in the mall. I picked up work giving tennis lessons for the local park and rec center.
On paper, mine sounded cooler. Varsity tennis player teaching the next generation? Sure. Except the training program was basically some guy who looked like a janitor making me hold up a racket like it was a driver’s license photo. Meanwhile, Todd was working at the pet store. And let me tell you — in the mid-90s, pet stores were hot chick magnets. A group of girls walks in, Todd strolls over with a bunny in his arms, fast forward ten years, they’re researching preschools together.
Me? I was stuck corralling snot-nosed kids and stay-at-home moms surgically clinging to their twenties. Looking back, it wasn’t the worst gig, but at the time I was jealous and couldn’t see the forest for the trees.
The one thing majorly in my favor? The pay. Minimum wage back then was $4.25. My tennis hustle? $14 an hour. Twelve hours a week at 17 years old — that’s basically Scrooge McDuck money. Still, I felt compelled to bitch.
I’d had a brutal shift on the courts. The kids were bratty and not listening, housewives distracted by the beefcake on the next court. Saturated with late teens angst and insecurity, it was a lot to deal with that day. My big mistake? I vented to Todd. His reply:
“Today, one of our husky puppies ate something it shouldn’t. Got sick. Diarrhea everywhere. Then it rolled in it. Covered head to paw. Did I mention it was a white husky? I had to clean it. I make minimum wage. Go do unspeakable things to yourself.”
The Sort of Seamless Transition to Talking About QBs
What does that story have to do with fantasy football? Nothing. I just felt the world needed to know about it. Try as I might, I can’t come up with a clever way to analogize a shit-covered puppy and drafting a quarterback.
Unless… unless we take the puppy… and make it someone’s fantasy roster… drafting a quarterback too early is eating the thing it shouldn’t eat… missing out on picking a flex option is the putrid, runny poo… OH MY GOD I DID IT!!! Anyway, back to the point. For years, fantasy managers have fallen prey to a number of biases. The first one? Recency bias. Remember Cam Newton’s 2015 season? League-winner. The very next year? He was being drafted first overall in a lot of leagues and promptly turned in a season that was fine by most measures, and that you also could have gotten from a quarterback taken ten rounds later. The reason he was a league-winner in ’15 wasn’t just his stats — it was that he wasn’t drafted early. By the time you got him in ‘15 you’d already stocked up on WRs and started building your running back stable.
Fast forward to 2024: the top fantasy QBs were Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts. No surprise — elite rushing upside, strong passing track records. But in 2025? They’ll all go way earlier than they should. That’s the reach that torpedoes your team. Yes, Lamar will have a week where he scores 48 points and wins you the matchup singlehandedly. But there will also be weeks where Dak Prescott or Jared Goff throws 5 touchdowns, and they were just sitting there in Round 11. Yeah, it’s tempting to get one of the top quarterbacks in the second or third rounds, but you’re doing so at the expense of a top shelf WR, which as we’ve already covered, you need to be stockpiling.
The Expert Trap
Another classic trap: the appeal to expertise logical fallacy. Fantasy “experts” are everywhere now. The outstanding Matthew Berry opened the door, and suddenly every guy who went 6–8 in his office league is churning out clickbait sleepers lists.
Maybe I’m being harsh. Maybe I’m bitter. Okay fine — yes, I’m bitter. But the truth is these guys and gals are making educated guesses. And yet, I guarantee you, some nincompoop in two of my leagues will draft Bo Nix in the fifth round because an article told him Nix is the next big breakout. Really? Nix is a fine young quarterback with a good coach, and might just turn into a star. But in the fifth round? That’s malpractice.
In the last mock draft I did, I took Jalen Waddle in the fifth round. Jalen. Freaking. Waddle.
People are obsessed with stocking their rosters with guys the “experts” are predicting will have big seasons. Friends, drafting a guy three rounds earlier than he should reasonably go because you read an article is not good fantasy business. It’s paying Glenmorangie 21 prices for Dewars quality.
When to Strike
It's a tough question. Fantasy drafts are a little bit like fingerprints. No two are exactly alike and some of them have fecal matter in them if viewed under a microscope. There’s no hard and fast answer to this, but personally, I don’t even begin looking until the 10th round. And that’s mainly to see who might still be there when I pick in the 11th round.
Here’s who was still on the board in the 11th round of my last mock:
Jordan Love
Dak Prescott Don’t laugh. Yes, the Cowboys suck. They also won’t be able to run the ball. They also have CD Lamb.
Justin “Piss Missile” Herbert
Drake Maye Look for a big year from him. Rushing upside plus improved supporting cast equals big time potential.
Guys who went after defenses and kickers started coming off the board:
Tua Tagovailoa The concussion issue is a massive risk but as long as you have one of the other guys we’re chatting about here, the potential payoff is huge, throwing to Tyreek Hill and Waddle.
C.J. Stroud Yes, freaking seriously.
Jared Goff, who could very well throw 40 TDs this season.
Guys who weren’t even drafted:
Sam Darnold Don’t laugh, check last season’s stats.
Matthew Stafford If his back holds up, that Rams offense is primed for positive passing touchdown regression. He’ll be throwing to Puka Nakua AND Davante Adams. Yes, I’m serious.
Caleb Williams. Weapons everywhere and a shiny new offensive coordinator. Color me tempted.
You could feasibly stream QBs the first few weeks and still win your league. Not saying you should, but the depth is that outrageous.
Putting Myself on The Spot
Again, don’t laugh. Here’s a guy who ends up on my roster more often than not. Bryce Young. I said don’t laugh or I’ll slap that smirk off your face. And oh, guess who was a top ten quarterback in PPG for the last part of 2025. Yeah. But I’m also realistic, I know that Young plays on Carolina, and beefed up supporting cast or not, it’s still a shit show there until proven otherwise, so he’s my second qb. Guy’s I’m consistently ending up with as well are Herbert, Maye and Goff. With four WR1s. I’m telling you, this is the way.
Coming Next:
Part V: Tight Ends — The Fabergé Eggs of Fantasy Football. A couple of them are so rare I’ll take them in Round 2, but most are cheap knockoffs you punt into oblivion. And I’ve never used “Fabergé” in an article before and always wanted to. Oh, and since the husky poo story went over so well, you’ll also get a yarn spun from my college days: a swan-dive vomit incident and a lip tattoo. Stay tuned.
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