Fantasy Football Domination, Part II: Running Backs — Ignoring the Shiny Objects
There are things in life that get better with age. Scotch. Wine. To be honest, most forms of alcohol. Certain blues guitarists whose voices sound like a well-worn leather belt. — they all tend to improve after a few years in the dark, growing mysterious in the bottle.
Then there’s the NFL running back, a creature whose shelf life is closer to unrefrigerated sushi in a Las Vegas parking lot. By 26, they’re feeling it in the knees. By 28, they’re lucky to still be on a roster. And by 30, they’re either in a studio doing bad local radio or uploading “Day in the Life” workout videos that nobody watches past the 47-second mark.
The Rookie Mirage
Fantasy managers know this harsh truth — and then, like a man who’s been burned once in love and immediately proposes to the first stranger who laughs at his joke, they overcorrect. They reach for rookie running backs whose hype far exceeds their eventual production, drafting them multiple rounds before common sense says they should.
Yes, if you have a shot at Ashton Jeanty or Omarion Hampton, they’re worth grabbing in the first couple of rounds. Those guys might be the real deal. But beyond those two? You’re playing slot machines with your RB2 spot, and the house always wins.
Complicating matters is the fact that true workhorse, bellcow running backs are in shorter supply than a clean bathroom at a music festival. So people panic. They start burning picks in Rounds 3–6 on rookies when, sitting right there in plain view, are wide receivers who will absolutely outscore them in points per game.
The Oldies but Goodies Play
This is where the patient drafter cashes in. The guy who lets everyone else froth up his boxer briefs over Treyveon Henderson’s “explosiveness” while quietly making a note to draft Aaron Jones in the 9th. Yes — ninth. Or Tony Pollard sitting in the same neighborhood. Austin Ekeler in the 12th round.
Are these guys as sexy as the 24-year-old in the black dress with the neckline so deep it could have its own philosophy blog? No. But like the early-forties divorcee in the corner, sipping an Old Fashioned, sequined tank top catching the light just so, and offering a “come hither” smile — you know what you’re going to get. And that’s a hell of a lot more than you can say for RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson, or most rookies not named Jeanty or Hampton.
At least the divorcee’s going to show up on time and order something off the menu. The rookie? Might not even get invited to dinner.
The ‘If Only’ Guys
The same goes for those “massive upside” backs if they would “only get a chance.” I have massive upside too if Sydney Sweeney would only give me a chance. Sure, spend a mid round pick on Jordan Mason or Trey Benson, and you might end up with a runway model who has a PhD on your arm, but more likely you’ll end up with an OnlyFans model who is still 27 credits away from her Associate’s Degree. That sounded way more pejorative in my head than it looks on screen, but I’m too lazy to delete it.
Now — and this is important — if these “old guys” are the only running backs on your roster, you’re more screwed than a flat-pack IKEA bookshelf assembled entirely with the wrong-sized Allen wrench. Worried about bridging the gap? In half of my mock drafts so far, Chuba Hubbard — who had a phenomenal year on a miserable Carolina Panthers team, and now returns with an improved cast around him — has been available in the fifth round. Alvin Kamara, another “old” guy whose age isn’t held against him nearly as much as some others, has almost always been available in the fourth round.
The point isn’t to ignore rookies entirely — Phil Mafah might very well be starting for the Dallas Cowboys by week six, and he’s not even being drafted — it’s to let the hype-chasers spend their early-middle picks while you scoop up consistent veterans at a discount, while greedily Hungry Hungry Hippo-ing stud WRs, and waltz into October with a floor that could survive a nuclear winter. This way, if Jarquez Hunter turns out to be a monster for you, it’s a nice bonus rather than what you’re counting on.
Coming Next:
Part III: Wide Receivers and the Fine Art of Hoarding — why the smart owner treats WR depth like a dragon treats gold, and how to make your opponents beg you for just one shiny piece.
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