The 2024 NBA Draft Pour-Over Report
Twelve months, one NBA Draft Class
There’s a popular YouTube content creator named VSauce who is selling a clock that counts down the seconds you have left to live. Not hours, not days—seconds. A glowing red reminder that your life is less a journey and more a candle, dripping wax onto the table as it slouches toward darkness. Every sandwich might be your last, every bad haircut a scar you’ll carry into eternity. The digits tick down with the same merciless pulse as a hospital monitor, equal parts executioner’s drum and cosmic joke. A silent auditor of the futility of man, humming the reminder that we are all walking expiration dates dressed up in sneakers and denim.
…It also tells time.
The reason I can’t own one? It’d be bad for my marriage. She’d be putting her makeup on before dinner and I’d be yelling “Do you realize how many seconds of my life you’ve taken off? Let’s GO!”
Ultimately, I couldn’t figure out who this product was for. Nope — just did. I’m mailing one to Jerry Reinsdorf to remind him I don’t exactly have all the time in the world to wait for the Bulls to be relevant again.
Time’s undefeated. Ask any rookie — you get 24 seconds to make a move, one year to prove you belong, and before long your team is signing your replacement to a contract.
So let’s line ‘em up. The 2024 NBA Draft Pour-Over Report isn’t about hot takes — it’s about what twelve months of game film and cheap whiskey reveal. Some rookies are already single malt. Others? Hangover fuel. Let’s go; clock’s ticking.
Tier 1 - Lagavulin 16: The Real Ones
#1: Stephon Castle, Spurs, Guard, 6’6”, 215 lbs, 4th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
14.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists. Splits: 41% FG / 28% 3PT / 72% FT.
All-Rookie First Team, Rookie of the Year.
Projected at: #4, Pre-Draft Comp: Anthony Black
Castle arrived billed as “Anthony Black with a defensive engine”—a long, switchable guard with upside as a secondary creator. But the Spurs knew better - while Black has evolved into more of 3-and-D player, Castle didn’t just meet that comp—he leapfrogged it.
I was at the November 4th Spurs-Clippers game at Intuit Dome, and Clippers fans came to see Wemby. They left talking about the rookie who looked unstoppable: closing out like a freight train, scrambling into passing lanes, tearing down boards, then spinning back and hitting mid-range jumpers. More than anything a box score would show, his poise is elite, and he’s got that relentless motor plus plenty of room for improvement on his offensive game.
The Spurs trading away Tre Jones is a vote of confidence. Castle is quickly becoming just the versatile threat that Wembanyama needs; a stopper who can generate offense, and when the breakaway happens, the defense has to figure out how to defend Castle’s pull-up, his drive, or his kick out to a cutting Victor. His stock isn’t just rising—it launched.
Needs to improve: Consistency from deep—28% isn’t cutting it for someone starting with these minutes and this tempo.
#2: Alex Sarr, Wizards, Center/Forward, 7’1”, 217 lbs, 2nd pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks. Splits: 39.4% FG / 30.8% 3PT / 67.9% FT.
All-Rookie First Team.
Projected at: #2, Pre-Draft Comp: Evan Mobley
Washington drafted the Frenchman into a rebuild so barren it made “trust the process” look like a luxury cruise. With no rim protection and no defensive backbone, he wasn’t eased in—he was immediately cast as the anchor of a team that had none. His job was simple and impossible: protect the paint, switch on the perimeter, and somehow make the Wizards respectable. On that count, he delivered. Even when the offense clanked and his 39% shooting sagged under the weight of too many forced jumpers, his defensive presence was undeniable.
The Mobley comp still fits—long, mobile, versatile—but Sarr’s rookie profile leans heavier on rebounding and shot disruption than polish or efficiency. Unlike Mobley, who had Garland and Allen insulating him, Sarr was asked to be both savior and scaffolding. His numbers reflect the grind, but so does his All-Rookie First Team nod: he played through the chaos and still came out stamped as a foundational piece. The Wizards haven’t added anyone to threaten his minutes, a sign they’re betting their house on him and Bilal Coulibaly as twin cornerstones. If he ever tightens his offensive diet, Sarr could elevate from “franchise starter kit” to genuine franchise player.
Needs to improve: Shot selection and efficiency from the charity stripe—until his touch matches his tools, defenses will happily let him fire.
#3: Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks, Forward, 6’8”, 204 lbs, 1st pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists. Splits: 45.8% FG / 35.5% 3PT / 71.1% FT.
All-Rookie First Team.
Projected at: #1, Pre-Draft Comp: Harrison Barnes
The Hawks spent the #1 pick chasing a future franchise cornerstone and wound up with a Harrison Barnes clone. That’s not an insult to Risacher—he can already defend multiple spots, hit 35% from three, and generally do all the “solid wing” things you want—but it’s a brutal indictment of this draft class when “solid wing” was good enough for first overall.
Atlanta handed him a clear runway by trading John Collins for Rudy Gay, who retired three months later. That void made Risacher less luxury, more necessity. He stepped in and gave them exactly what they needed: efficiency, defense, competence. The Barnes comp still fits: reliable, versatile, never spectacular. Which is fine—unless you’re holding the #1 pick in your hands.
He’s shown a particular aptitude on defense, where his basketball IQ allows him to anticipate where he needs to be to shut down a play. His length also helps him get the job done, and he’s shown an ability to stay with guards on defense. He’ll need to fill out his frame a bit before we anoint him with being able to stop all 5 however.
Needs to improve: Shot creation—until he proves he can make things happen off the dribble, he’ll always be a great supporting piece rather than the centerpiece.
#4: Zach Edey, Grizzlies, Center, 7’4”, 300 lbs, 9th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
9.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocks. Splits: 58.0% FG / 34.6% 3PT / 70.9% FT.
All-Rookie First Team.
Projected at: #17, Pre-Draft Comp: Jonas Valančiūnas
Memphis reached for Edey at #9 when most mocks had him sliding toward the teens, and a year later it looks like they knew exactly what they were doing. The Grizzlies have spent the Ja Morant era leaning on “wings for days” switchability—a fun regular-season tactic that tends to disintegrate in the playoffs. Dropping a 7’4”, 300-pound paint-crasher next to Jaren Jackson Jr. gave them something sturdier, and suddenly the Grizzlies looked like the old twin towers squad that once shoved Lob City out of the postseason.
The Valančiūnas comp still makes sense—big body, boards, soft touch—but Edey’s already flashing more efficiency and a surprising 34% stroke from deep. That extra wrinkle changes his ceiling from dependable bruiser to potential matchup-breaker. Memphis doubled down this offseason by not adding veteran insurance at center, a sign they’re ready to ride with him.
He’s still a target in pick-and-rolls, but with Ja throwing him lobs and Jackson covering his blind spots, Edey looks less like a reach and more like the piece that might finally give Memphis a playoff gear beyond switch-and-pray.
Needs to improve: Lateral quickness on defense—until he proves he can survive in space, smart offenses will drag him into every screen.
Tier 2 - Macallan 12 Sherry Oak: Solid Sippers
#5: Carlton Kaleel “Bub” Carrington III
Wizards, Guard, 6’4”, 195 lbs, 14th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
9.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists. Splits: 40.1% FG / 34% 3PT / 79% FT.
All-Rookie Second Team.
Projected at: #20, Pre-Draft Comp: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
When the Blazers took Bub at #14 and promptly shipped him to Washington, the reaction was muted — mocks had him closer to #20, and his Nickeil Alexander-Walker comp sounded like a long wait for modest payoff. But with the Wizards desperate for backcourt stability, Carrington was thrown straight into the fire, playing all 82 games and walking out with an All-Rookie Second Team nod. Instead of years of seasoning, he looked ready-made: steady, patient, never rattled.
A more accurate comp looks to be Derrick White, only arriving early. White didn’t hit this kind of production until year three; Bub delivered it as a teenager. His poise shows up in the way he controls tempo, makes the simple play, and sees the floor like he’s still back in his high school’s chess team, optimizing his next move. Washington believes; they left the guard rotation wide open this summer, handing him the reins without a veteran hedge.
He may never be flashy, but the best chess players aren’t either. They just win.
Needs to improve: Aggressiveness as a scorer — until he hunts his own shot more often, defenses will keep daring him to stay passive.
#6: Donovan Clingan, Trail Blazers, Center, 7’2”, 280 lbs, 7th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
8.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks. Splits: 57.4% FG / 14.7% 3PT / 63% FT.
All-Rookie Second Team.
Projected at: #6, Pre-Draft Comp: Roy Hibbert
Portland didn’t draft Clingan for flash. They drafted him because the modern NBA has a simple, brutal reality: you need an answer for Jokic, for Giannis, and sooner or later, for Wemby. If you can’t match size with size, you’re already dead. Clingan gave them exactly what they were buying — nearly eight boards a night, soft touch around the rim, and a massive body who soaks up space like a black hole.
The Hibbert comp was about bulk and rim protection, but Hibbert played in an era that wanted bigs to be stationary gargoyles. Clingan moves better, passes cleaner, and fits in a league that’s rediscovering how terrifying a true seven-footer can be when he’s not a stiff. Portland hedged with Ayton still on the roster, but the fact they carved out real rotation minutes for Clingan in year one tells you plenty: they think he’s part of their answer.
In a thin draft, simply locking down solid viability is a win. Clingan isn’t rewriting what we thought he’d be, but he’s proven the role is real, and that matters.
Needs to improve: Passing out of pressure — until he makes defenses pay for doubling him, he’ll be capped as a functional big rather than a featured one.
#7: Matas Buzelis, Bulls, Forward, 6’10”, 209 lbs, 11th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
8.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists. Splits: 45.4% FG / 36.1% 3PT / 81.5% FT.
All-Rookie Second Team.
Projected at: #5, Pre-Draft Comp: Lamar Odom (pre-Khloé Kardashian)
Chicago hasn’t hit a draft pick cleanly since Derrick Rose’s knees still had warranty coverage, so when Buzelis slid to 11 it felt less like strategy and more like the basketball gods saying, “Fine, even you idiots can’t screw this up.” Projected as high as fifth, he was supposed to be a point-forward in the Lamar Odom mold — and damned if the numbers don’t back it up. Odom’s rookie line in 2000? 43.9% from the field, 36.1% from three, 70.4% from the line. Buzelis? 45.4%, 36.1%, 81.5%. Nearly identical rookie shooting splits, with Buzelis already the better free-throw shooter. That’s not a loose comp — that’s a carbon copy with a modern upgrade.
And then came March 29 against Dallas: 28 points, 9 boards, 6 dimes, joining Michael Jordan and Charles Oakley as the only Bulls rookies ever to hit that stat line. The Odom flashes weren’t theory anymore — they happened, in real time, on an NBA floor. He’s still got the rookie dips (when the jumper isn’t falling, his impact can vanish), but the scaffolding of a real player is undeniable.
The Bulls let DeRozan walk this summer, not because they suddenly grew competent, but because they’re broke and allergic to direction. By accident, they’ve cleared the runway for Buzelis to take wing minutes he hasn’t even finished growing into. For once, their failure might actually help them.
Needs to improve: Strength and durability — until his frame catches up to his skill set, he’ll flash brilliance but fade under NBA physicality.
Tier 3 – Jameson Original: Acquire a Taste or Get Burned
#8: Ron Holland, Pistons, Forward, 6’7”, 197 lbs, 5th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
6.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists. Splits: 47.4% FG / 23.8% 3PT / 75.4% FT.
Projected at: #9, Pre-Draft Comp: Cam Whitmore
The Pistons drafted Ron Holland with the expectation he’d be a long-term project, and that’s exactly how year one looked. The raw Ignite résumé — 19.5 points per game, freak athleticism, and a free-throw stroke that hinted at a fixable jumper — was tempered by turnovers, clunky spacing, and that 23% three-point crater. The surgery in January ’23 robbed him of half a year of development, and the pandemic already hacked away at his high school reps. He’s behind schedule, but not without upside.
Detroit’s summer moves underscored that point. They added Duncan Robinson, an undrafted shooter Miami gave up on; Caris LeVert, a 6’6” guard who plays three inches shorter on defense, with streaky effort and a predilection for hero-ball when a pass would have sufficed; and Javonte Green, a one-year vet deal who’s more placeholder than competition. For Holland, that’s the bar: he has to show he’s not just another body.
The Whitmore comp still fits — explosive but erratic — but Whitmore in Houston looked further along, more polished in his first run. Holland is still in the “what if” stage, but Detroit struck gold with another raw project in Jalen Duren, and they’re hoping lightning strikes twice. The floor is Killian Hayes. The ceiling is something far higher, but the climb looks steep.
Needs to improve: Decision-making with the ball — until he learns when to attack and when to kick, his athleticism will stay bottled.
#9: Tidjane Salaun, Hornets, Forward, 6’9”, 212 lbs, 6th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
5.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists. Splits: 33.0% FG / 28.3% 3PT / 68% FT.
Projected at: #12, Pre-Draft Comp: Obi Toppin
The Hornets zigged when most mocks had them zagging, burning the 6th pick on Salaun — a raw French forward projected closer to the teens. His appeal was clear: length, motor, and a frame that could eventually bully wings instead of just chasing them. The downside was also clear: he was the definition of a project, and in a draft this thin, Charlotte somehow managed to take a lottery ticket with the lottery itself.
Year one was predictably rocky: 33% shooting, under 30% from deep, and a role that looked more “hustle guy” than “future star.” Yet even skeptics had to admit he flashed signs — crashing glass with abandon, running the floor like his shorts were on fire, and showing off the upper-body strength he added over the summer. His work ethic is undeniable, and there’s value in that.
But the bigger story is this: the French are storming the lottery like it’s the Bastille — four in the first 14 picks, all riding Wemby’s coattails. History says that’s a fool’s correlation. Yao Ming was a Hall of Famer, but he didn’t unlock a golden age of Chinese imports; we got Yi Jianlian, Wang Zhizhi, and Sun Yue instead. The question with Salaun isn’t whether he has motor — it’s whether his game is more revolution or more rerun.
Needs to improve: Shooting consistency — until he proves defenders have to guard him outside of ten feet, the “motor” won’t mean much.
#10: Cody Williams, Jazz, Forward, 6’8”, 190 lbs, 10th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
4.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists. Splits: 32.3% FG / 25.9% 3PT / 72.5% FT.
Projected at: #7, Pre-Draft Comp: Jaden McDaniels
Cody Williams slipped from a projected 7th to 10th on draft night, and his rookie season in Utah showed why. He looked timid, overwhelmed, and physically undercooked. Guards shoved him aside, wings bodied him up, and bigs treated him like free points at a carnival booth. His jumper was no help either — 32% from the field, 25% from deep — making him one of those rookies you’d squint at and ask, “Wait, what does he actually do out there?”
The Jaden McDaniels comp? Forget it. McDaniels made his living on defense from day one. Williams, meanwhile, looked more like a throwback to Corey Brewer, aka “The Drunken Dribbler.” Brewer brought two decades of chaotic mediocrity to the league, stumbling into fast breaks, flailing into threes, and somehow always finding a roster spot. That’s the Cody Williams vibe right now: awkward, erratic, but maybe just enough motor to linger.
The Jazz are betting on more. Williams spent the summer on a 4,800-calorie-a-day diet to bulk up, reportedly hating every bite, but he did show up sturdier and more confident in Summer League. If he embraces the Brewer path — hustle, chaos, defense-first — he could stick. Not everyone has to be a star; sometimes survival is the win. And as long-time devotees of sustained mediocrity ourselves, we raise a glass to “The Drunken Dribbler 2.0.”
Needs to improve: Strength and confidence — until he can take a hit and hit a jumper, he’ll remain more meme than menace.
#11: Reed Sheppard, Rockets, Guard, 6’3”, 187 lbs, 3rd pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
4.4 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists. Splits: 35% FG / 34% 3PT / 81% FT.
Projected at: #3, Pre-Draft Comp: Donte DiVincenzo
The Rockets took Sheppard 3rd overall expecting a deadeye DiVincenzo clone, and instead got a rookie who looked spooked — hesitant with the ball, outmuscled on defense, and clanking threes at 34% after torching college nets at 50%. Twelve minutes a night was enough to show flashes of IQ and defensive chaos, but also enough to confirm he wasn’t ready for the keys.
So what did Houston do this summer? Handed him the damn keys anyway. Jalen Green shipped out in the Durant deal, Whitmore sent packing, Dillon Brooks gone — the backcourt is now Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard. That’s not patience, that’s belief. They didn’t bring in a veteran hedge, just Aaron Holiday and Josh Okogie. The message is clear: this is your spot, kid. And with a bit of mentoring from notorious “good guy to have in a locker room” in Fred, maybe we’ve got something here.
If he hits, the Rockets look brilliant for clearing the runway. If he misses, it’s a disaster — because KD is running out of patience for a ring faster than I am with the Bulls.
Needs to improve: Confidence, shot creation, and shaving — because if you’re going to play like a ghost, the Adam Morrison mustache isn’t helping.
#12: Nikola Topić, Thunder, Guard, 6’6”, 201 lbs, 12th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
DNP – missed rookie season due to ACL injury.
Projected at: #15, Pre-Draft Comp: Goran Dragić
The Thunder didn’t draft a player so much as a rehabilitation project. Topić tore his ACL before ever hitting the floor, and OKC — masters of patience — were fine redshirting him for a year. With Shai, Jalen Williams, and Chet already carrying the franchise, they could afford to stash a lottery ticket and wait.
At 6’6”, Topić brings an unusually big frame for a point guard, with pick-and-roll craft and pace control that drew the Dragić comp. But there’s another name that hovers: Shaun Livingston. Before his knee bent sideways and Sam Cassell threw a towel over it to spare the children (I was there, with my dad - the silence was unforgettable), Livingston looked like a franchise guard. After the injury, it took years for him to come back — but when he did, he was reborn as a steady hand in Golden State’s dynasty, a three-time champion who carved his way back with poise and midrange touch, playing meaningful minutes in The Finals.
That’s the Topić path: less explosion, more orchestration. If the knee holds, he could become the tall, methodical floor commander who stabilizes OKC’s second unit and eventually more. The Thunder didn’t bring in a veteran hedge, which tells you they’re not just hoping — they’re expecting him back in the mix.
Needs to improve: Health first, burst second — because if he comes back with enough first-step juice, everything else in his game already fits.
Tier 4 – Old Crow: Rotgut Regrets
#13: Devin Carter, Blazers, Guard, 6’3”, 193 lbs, 13th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
3.8 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists. Splits: 42% FG / 32% 3PT / 77% FT.
Projected at: #8, Pre-Draft Comp: Derrick White
Carter came into the league with White-level expectations — a tough, versatile guard who could glue lineups together. Instead, a shoulder injury derailed his rookie rhythm, and when he finally saw the floor, the jumper looked busted and the playmaking was MIA. He competed, sure, but “competing” isn’t an NBA skill when it’s attached to 32% from deep. Now, with Sacramento sniffing around trades, his rookie deal already feels like it’s in salvage mode.
The better frame is a range: Patrick Beverley to Frank Ntilikina. Carter has the dogged defense and energy to scrap like Bev, but none of the bark — no track record of trash talk, no real edge to make opponents hate him. That matters when your offensive bag is this thin. Without the snarl, he risks drifting into the Frank zone: long arms, good motor, and ultimately out of the rotation when the shot doesn’t come around.
That’s the razor’s edge he’s walking. And right now, he doesn’t look enough like Pat to avoid looking too much like Frank.
Needs to improve: Shooting mechanics, playmaking, and developing an identity beyond “tries hard.”
#14: Rob Dillingham, Timberwolves, Guard, 6’2”, 164 lbs, 8th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
4.5 points, 1.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists. Splits: 36% FG / 31% 3PT / 78% FT.
Projected at: #11, Pre-Draft Comp: Lou Williams
The Wolves swung on Dillingham hoping for instant microwave scoring, a Lou Williams-style sixth man who could detonate second units. What they got instead was a blur of speed and a whole lot of chucking. Minnesota tried him in the G League, and in two games he averaged 19.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists—but shot 31.9% from the floor and 8.3% from three. That’s not streaky, that’s pyromaniac basketball: the house is definitely on fire, you just don’t know if it’s warming you or burning the whole thing down.
At this point, he’s starting to feel less Lou Will and more Sebastian Telfair—a hyped guard whose mixtape moments never quite grew into an NBA meal. The situation doesn’t help. With new ownership in place, every player is an asset, and Dillingham isn’t their guy. Reid and Randle just got paid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker was shipped out, and the backcourt is increasingly crowded with expectations. He’s a one-man fast break with undeniable upside, but unless the shot stabilizes, he’s the kind of lottery pick that gets quietly stapled to a trade package the moment the new regime starts playing roster Jenga.
Needs to improve: Shot selection, strength, and proving he’s more than a YouTube mixtape in NBA colors.
#15 (Bonus) Dalton Knecht, Lakers, Forward, 6’6”, 212 lbs, 17th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
9.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists. Splits: 46.1% FG / 37.6% 3PT / 76.2% FT.
Projected at: #10, Pre-Draft Comp: Wally Szczerbiak
Dalton Knecht was sold as plug-and-play scoring, a ready-made wing who could buy LeBron’s 40-year-old legs a breather and let the Lakers brag about “stealing” a lottery talent at 17. Instead, his rookie campaign looked like a Hollywood flop with a bloated budget; more glitz than slam. Yes, the raw splits don’t scream disaster—but context does. He shot 23% from three in Summer League, bottomed at 15% by December, and by midseason the only thing consistent about his jumper was LeBron’s death glare after each miss.
The Lakers’ desperation was so real they tried to staple Knecht and Cam Reddish to a future first just to pry loose Mark Williams from Charlotte. That deal died when Williams failed his physical, leaving Dalton to marinate in purple and gold as the guy his own team already tried to cash out like a losing lottery ticket.
The Wally World comp feels almost cruel now—Szczerbiak was an All-Star who could fill it up. Knecht, at least so far, is moments of brilliance surrounded by long stretches of mediocrity. The Lakers wanted a savior, what they got was a cautionary tale: never confuse “college bucket-getter” with “NBA floor spacer.”
Needs to improve: Overall skills.
The Death Clock doesn’t stop for excuses. It doesn’t pause because your jumper’s broke, your frame isn’t filled out, or your coach decided you’re “a project.” It just ticks. And basketball, more than any other sport, understands what that means. Every possession has a shot clock. Every game ends with a buzzer. Every second matters.
Stephon Castle and Alex Sarr? Already beating the horn, ahead of schedule. Zaccharie Risacher? Right on time, steady and reliable. Zach Edey? Early to the play, dunking before the defense even rotated.
But the rest? Some are dribbling out the clock with empty possessions (Holland, Salaun). Some haven’t even checked in yet (Topić). And a few—Dillingham, Knecht—are straight-up committing shot-clock violations, still looking for their man while the buzzer sounds.
That’s the cruelty of the draft, and of time: you don’t get extensions, you don’t get do-overs. You either respect the seconds you’ve got, or you lose them. And in this league, the buzzer always wins.
Todd / 120 Proof Ball
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